Pakistani Government Closely Watching Developments in Iran

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani government prepares itself for impact as a neighboring country of Iran where revolutionary political situation points towards an impending political change.

On the surface, the Pakistani government maintains a policy of “measured neutrality” and a strong position against any kind of external interference in the internal affairs of Iran. Behind the scene Pakistan state machinery apprehends a severe political and geopolitical impact of momentous political changes in Iranian society.

As protests spread to 180 cities of Iran in the wake of total collapse of Iranian Rial and growing threats of military intervention from US or Israel, Pakistan would be the first country to feel the impact of any prolonged upheaval in Iranian society.

“We are looking at the situation very closely and we are weighing what kind of impact it would have on Pakistani society” a senior government official told NAM news.

Islamabad has completely rejected foreign intervention in Iran’s internal affairs, describing the stability of its neighbor as “vital for the entire region”.

A prominent concern among strategic thinkers is that a Western-backed regime change could bring a leadership that aligns with Israel, effectively placing an adversary on Pakistan’s western border.

“The 909-kilometer border between Iran and Pakistan’s Balochistan province is a flashpoint for cross-border smuggling and militancy” said “A destabilized Iran could embolden separatist groups, such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), potentially intensifying the insurgency and threatening the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects”.

Pakistani strategic thinkers maintain that a pro-Israeli government in Tehran would be a nightmare for Pakistan.

Pakistan currently navigates a delicate path between the US and China. A US-aligned Iranian regime would shift the regional balance in favor of Washington, potentially forcing Islamabad into difficult diplomatic choices that could strain its long-term strategic partnership with Beijing.

Pakistani strategic thinkers maintain that Iran’s current crisis is structural—driven by economic mismanagement and a collapsed social contract—rather than just episodic. However, there is skepticism regarding the immediate fall of the clerical system due to the continued cohesion of the IRGC.

On January 1, 2026, Pakistan issued a travel advisory for citizens in Iran, reflecting the official assessment that the protests have reached a level of “extreme caution”.

It is generally believed in Pakistan strategic circles that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains the primary obstacle to regime change in Iran, utilizing its vast security, economic, and political infrastructure to preserve the current clerical system. However, analysts note that the institution faces unprecedented internal and external pressures that test its cohesion.

The IRGC leadership has declared national security a “red line,” warning that they will use all necessary force to prevent destabilization, which they attribute to “hybrid warfare” from the US and Israel. The regime has implemented nationwide internet shutdowns and blackouts to hide the scale of its crackdown, which reportedly involves specialized Ground Forces and the Basij militia.

Pakistan’s economy is greatly dependent on the oil prices in the international market for its financial stability as well as its industrial growth.

Any prolonged instability in Iranian society is likely to disrupt Pakistan’s effort for economic recovery and financial stability. Iran’s stability is generally considered vital for Pakistan’s security, stability and economic recovery