A Conflict in Persian Gulf Would Destabilize The Region as Well as Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: Any possible US attack is likely to widen the conflict into a regional conflicting engulfing Oil rich states, dragging Iran backed regional Shia militias into the conflict, and in the process leading to Iranian counter attacks on smaller regional countries like Bahrain, Qatar and UAE, which host American military bases on their territory.

The US military deployment in the Persian Gulf in the shape of USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and other surface ships as part of a strike group is a clear indication of American preparations to launch strikes inside Iran, where violent protest against the clergy led regime in Tehran is giving sleepless nights to the Iranian ruling elites.

American President Donald Trump has been vocally stating that the US could militarily intervene in the Iranian political crisis. Iranian officials have vowed that Iran would respond with full force to any US strike inside its territory.
American military bases in UAE, Qatar and Bahrain would be the first target of Iranian retaliation, especially in case their territory would be used for attack on Iran. Anticipating this retaliatory strikes several Gulf countries have refused to allow the Americans the use of their airspace for attack on Iran.

Several military experts have predicted that in case of a direct conflict between the United States and Iran the Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and various Shia militias in Iraq could launch coordinated attacks on Western interests and Israel, potentially widening the conflict beyond Iran’s borders.

The economic cost of the conflict would be horrendous. The Persian Gulf is the critical choke point through which 20 percent of global oil supplies pass through. It is likely that Iran will make an attempt to mine and close the Persian Gulf, which will make the energy prices skyrocket, a development which would trigger a global recession.

Some of the military experts have listed the Iranian option of closing and mining the Persian Gulf as its most potent deterrence against any American attack. The industrial machines of American allies like WEstern Europe and Japan would be worst affected by closure of Persian gulf and Strait of Hormuz, a scenario which could deter Americans from attacking Iran.

It is extremely naive of American experts to predict the collapse of Iranian central authority in case of persistent US strikes inside Iran. They have not bothered to ponder upon the consequences of such collapse. Experts point out that in case of collapse of central authority in Iran its 90+ million people could descend into civil war or fragment along ethnic lines (e.g., Kurds, Baluchis), creating a massive refugee and humanitarian crisis similar to the aftermath of conflicts in Syria or Libya.

Pakistan might emerge as the worst affected country from any possible conflict in the Persian Gulf with its economic taking nosedive. Pakistan relies heavily on Middle Eastern energy routes. A conflict would likely spike global oil prices and disrupt supply, leading to soaring inflation and higher electricity costs for an already struggling economy. In a proactive move on January 29, 2026, Pakistan secured a $430 million crude oil deal with the U.S. to reduce its critical reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan shares a 900 kilometers border with Iran with Iranian Balochistan providing sanctuaries to Pakistan Baloch rebels. The crisis in Iran might embolden Baloch separatist elements