Who wants to utilize Qureshi’s

Within the short span of a few months Pakistan’s powerful Army Chief Field Marshall, Asim Munir has paid two visits to  Washington. There are clear benefits that Pakistan gained from the visits at the diplomatic and military levels. The visits brought clear diplomatic disadvantages for India when the US State Department declared Baluch separatists-militant groups–which have received material and propaganda support from Indian intelligence and media–as global terrorists networks. This is a clear blow to the Indian position which portrayed these militant groups as freedom fighters. Now Indian intelligence will be aiding groups which have been declared terrorist by the United States. This appears as a major jolt to Indian diplomatic position on international terrorism. Till this declaration by the US State Department Indians used to boast their position  to be aligned with the global war against terrorism as all the groups which were targeting India had been declared terrorist by the US. Now India is facing a very difficult position when it and its intelligence agencies would be perceived as supporters of an international terrorist organization dubbed as terrorist by its closest ally, the United States. But Pakistan has no reason to be complacent. US-India military ties have deep institutional and geopolitical bases. The United States and the military assistance which it provided to India during the past ten years was the major reason behind Indian confidence and belligerence in its attitude which led to May 7, 2025 attack on Pakistani territory. We should remain aware of the fact that the conventional military balance between Pakistani and Indian militaries is widening with each passing day to Pakistan’s disadvantage. The threat of Indians acting on the impulse, originating in the current trend of militarily powerful states browbeat relatively weaker states in the international system, of devastating weaker neighbors could not be ruled out. US, Russia, Israel and France are supplying modern armory into Indian inventory, India flirting with dangerous military doctrines and Indian attempt to tamper with the nuclear deterrence relations are not good signs for South Asian peace.

What are the lessons for Pakistan: Remember the three lessons, a) This is an anarchic international system, and every state must fend for itself. Nobody will come to your rescue, b) Militarily powerful states during the last two years have crushed militarily weak states like Gaza and Ukraine. This could become fashionable under the logic of militarily powerful states making their security against terrorism and militancy a pretext for attacking militarily weaker states, c) International norms and laws will be of no help in such a situation.

We should develop a political response based on diplomatic initiative we should make world powers like the USA and Japan that their military ambitions in Indo-pacific region are endangering Pakistan’s security and region’s stability, d) We should make sure that our response to this challenge should not overly strengthen institutions within our state machinery. We should never lose sight of the fact that it is the people which are the most essential element that form the state—the other two being law and territory. What we mean by National security is the security of these people. So, security is not more important than the people themselves. This new military pressure is confronting us at a time when we are face to face with financial insolvency.

Pakistan needs to be watchful about the possibility of the concept of “Integrated Deterrence” taking concrete shape during Modi’s last visit to Washington. The concept gives India greater military capability and role in deterring Chinese assertiveness and alleged and possible military aggression. An American expert has described US plans to equip India with state-of-the-art military weapons systems and equipment as part of the plan for making the concept of “Integrated Deterrence” functional. During the last 15 years India has purchased weapons worth $20 billion from Washington. India plans to sign an agreement for the purchase of drones worth $3 billion dollars from the United States. This generosity could not be explained as part of the US military-industrial complex’s hunger for profit, “especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has generated tens of billions of dollars in more European purchases in 2022 alone”. India is certainly emerging as a recipient of American military assistance on a grand scale to make it a partner, if not a military ally, in deterring Chinese military assertiveness in the region as well as on the international stage.

Sameer P. Lalwani and Vikram J. Singh of United States Institute of Peace, in a recent analysis have pointed that Washington is expecting, “A more effective collaborative deterrence (with India)(that) requires more complex military exercises, more frequent use of logistics arrangements, more presence in different theaters, and greater access and overflight, all of which keeps China guessing. More frequent employment of already signed logistics arrangements — such as ship-to-ship underway replenishment or U.S. maritime patrol aircraft refueling in Port Blair — can add to this uncertainty, “What the United States seeks from India is greater operational cooperation to share the burden of deterring aggression by any major power, including China. Indigenous Indian capabilities help, but the key is more effective deterrence activity that complicates adversary planning, increases their uncertainty and creates hesitation. Sowing doubt is key to convincing your foe to delay military aggression for another day”. All this will come with a comprehensive package of transfer of military technology, surveillance equipment, joint production and state of the art weapons systems.

The international experts are pointing out the indications in official Indian discourse that they are about to abandon their stance of “no first use” of nuclear weapons. At a more complex level, the Indians have purchased or in negotiations to purchase latest intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities and precision strike aircraft that would make Pakistani strategic targets more vulnerable to Indian attacks, “A particularly grave concern is that if India pursues its policy to achieve technical superiority in ISR and precision targeting, this will provide India the capability to effectively locate and effectively destroy strategically important targets in Pakistan” says Peter R. Lavoy, internationally recognized nuclear expert, in one of this writing almost 15 years back.

US assistance to India in this regard is quite substantial. It has been providing intelligence information to the Indian military for the last ten years. This intelligence sharing reflects the depth of institutional relations that the two countries have developed in recent years. Pakistan will have to decide whether to trust the words of an erratic and unreliable American President or to be apprehensive about the depth of India-US military alliance in the Indo-Pacific.