PM Shehbaz Sharif’s firm stance at the SCO summit

This time Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was firmer and stiffer in his remarks at the SCO summit meeting in China. He was not at all conciliatory towards India. He firmly told the audience–Indian Prime Minister Narender Modi included–that Pakistan wanted to have good neighborly relations with all its neighbors. But the Prime Minister’s tone was not conciliatory but firm. He talked about structured dialogue to resolve outstanding disputes but never mentioned India in his speech. Rather he was critical of India, without mentioning it by name, when he said, “We respect all international and bilateral treaties and expect similar principles to be followed by all SCO members,” PM Shehbaz said at the summit today, in an apparent reference to fellow SCO member India and its unilateral move to hold the IWT in abeyance in April. “Uninterrupted access to due share of water as per existing treaties among SCO members will strengthen the SCO working smoothly and will support the achievement of broader goals for which the SCO was established,” he stressed at the summit in China’s Tianjin. The prime minister reaffirmed that Pakistan sought a “normal and stable relationship with all its neighbors”. “It seeks dialogue and diplomacy over conflict and confrontation,” he highlighted.

As the global power is shifting and the chances of rule based western international order being replaced by China led global order based on equality, trade and commerce are growing, Prime Minister hinted that any future dialogue between rivals in the region to resolve outstanding disputes should be under the auspices of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), At the SCO summit, PM Shehbaz called for a “comprehensive and structural dialogue to discuss all outstanding disputes”, adding: “I will request your consideration to lead this dialogue under your sagacious leadership so that they can have its dividends as early as possible.”

Many observers of international politics are of the view that the latest SCO summit was China’s move to inform the west about the advent of China led global order and SCO as a robust organization of regional cooperation as the most potent reflect of that order. Both India and Pakistan are members of SCO.

In Islamabad, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is seen as an alternative to the US-dominated international system. Pakistan’s foreign policy and strategic thinkers view this organisation as a forum where there exists a space for Pakistani foreign policy to operate in an atmosphere free from Western political, economic and military dominance. Pakistan’s ruling elite, however, does not seem to be ready to completely shift its position from being a West-reliant country to a country which can pursue an independent foreign policy in the context of economically integrated regions encompassing South Asia, Central Asia and Southwest Asia. Of course, these regions include China’s economic might and Russia. But there is a growing body of opinion in Pakistan that sees organisations like SCO as a forum where it can pursue an independent foreign policy away from the dreads of the West’s political, economic and military dominance.

More than diplomatic success, the SCO summit provides an opportunity for Pakistan to present and project itself on the international stage as a responsible country in control of its territory and foreign policy

There is a growing realisation within the Pakistani ruling elite that Pakistan needs economic growth, expansion of manufacturing capacity, and growth of its exports more than political relevance at the international level—which the alliance with the West afforded it. In this connection, the economics-based agenda of SCO appears extremely attractive to Pakistan’s foreign policy elites in the present circumstances. Secondly, the SCO’s focus on counter-terrorism is something that jells well with Pakistan’s internal security situation and will help Pakistan continue to pursue counter-terrorism goals overall. Pakistan has been dependent on Western financial largesse for quite some time. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), financial, economic, and military assistance from Washington and other Western-led programmes have proved to be a lifeline for Pakistan’s continued economic viability. However, despite all this, Pakistan’s ruling elites have shown remarkable resilience in the face of Western political pressure on key issues, which ruling elite members consider vital for the country’s national security interests. Firstly, since 1994, the Pakistani government has been under tremendous Western pressure to normalise relations with India— a pet Western project that would have paved the way for India’s rise as a regional hegemon. Pakistani ruling elites, however, did not relent on this point. Of late, Washington has been pressuring Pakistan to reconsider its dependence on China in connection with the implementation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) related projects. Once again, the Pakistanis did not relent. More precisely, Pakistan did not relent on the key question of the development of the nuclear weapons programme. Internally, Pakistan’s ruling classes believe that Pakistan must do something quickly to dispel the impression about the financial non-viability of the Pakistani national budget. If they see SCO as a forum which can help them in any way to make Pakistan financially viable again, they would be able to resist Western pressure.

Unlike other military men of Pakistan, Gen (retd) Bajwa didn’t try to exclude India from his plans for regional connectivity. He told the audience at the Islamabad conference that he was all for landlocked Afghanistan exporting its goods to India through land transit facilities offered by Pakistan

Pakistan has suffered badly because of America’s global War Against Terrorism, the focus of which remained Afghanistan — a country to the immediate West of Pakistan, and a country with which Pakistan shares economic, social and political affinity and interests. Pakistan lost its international stature, its economic and financial viability became suspect, and domestically, it has been facing two insurgencies, one in the Northwest and the other in the Southwest. Its fast-growing population is vulnerable to extremely hard economic and financial conditions. Social and political unrest is fast becoming a norm. All this requires a grand strategy to put Pakistan back on track. CPEC is such a project that can put Pakistan back on track. This is a project which has come to define the strategic vision of successive Pakistani military and political leaders. For instance, the incumbent Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Syed Asim Munir, and his predecessor, General (retd) Qamar Javed Bajwa, have repeatedly talked about making Pakistan a regional connectivity hub in their public assertions.

On March 18, 2021, General (retd) Bajwa forcefully advocated and projected Pakistan as a regional connectivity hub at a security conference in Islamabad. His long speech specifically focused on the idea of Pakistan acting as a hub for regional economic, trade, and commercial integration and connectivity. And unlike other military men of Pakistan, he didn’t try to exclude India from his plans for regional connectivity. He told the audience at the Islamabad conference that he was all for landlocked Afghanistan exporting its goods to India through land transit facilities offered by Pakistan. General Asim Munir repeated this theme in his public speeches. The fact that military leaders clearly realise Pakistan’s role as a land connecting not only energy-rich Central Asia with the energy-hungry South Asia, but they also see Pakistani territory as a link between two emerging markets of China and India. The then-Pakistani Ambassador to Washington, Ali Jehangir Siddique, clearly stated Pakistan’s role as a link between these emerging markets in a paper he authored for an American think tank. CPEC is a project which can make Pakistan’s military and political leaders realise this dream of making Pakistan a regional connectivity hub.