Pakistan’s Biggest Challenge Yet: Can It Balance Between U.S., China, Russia, and India?

At the sidelines of a recent Chinese military parade, the official photographer of the Chinese government had an opportunity to take the photo of four leaders–Chinese President, Xi Jinping, Russian President Putin, Northern Korea leader Kim Jong and Pakistani Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif in one frame. While the three Presidents are standing in a semi-circle in close friendly postures, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is standing on the sidelines of this semi circle, aloof and stiff faced. Some novices interpreted the photo as an example of the world giving less importance to the Pakistani prime minister who is not shown in the photo to be part of the friendly semi circle, standing alone on the sidelines. This novice seems to have missed the point: Pakistan, even when it is considered a closest friend of China, cannot afford to be seen as part of anti-western group of countries like Russia, China and North Korea. Pakistan is the closest ally of China. It is on the path to develop strong relations with Russia. We don’t have particularly bad relations with North Korea. But if these three countries come together to form an anti-west alliance, Pakistan cannot afford to be part of this alliance. Reasons are clear: Pakistan has reconnected with Washington and other western capitals after a bad patch of cold relations primarily because Pakistan and the Western countries didn’t see eye to eye on the situation in Afghanistan particularly while Western military forces were still in Afghanistan.

Till the mid-2022, Pakistan and China were getting so close militarily that some commentators in the West started to describe this as a quasi-military alliance. Sharpening US-China competition on the international stage, China-India military tensions and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan were the factors that acted in the background to bring Pakistan and China into a military embrace. State of the art Chinese modern weapon systems were inducted into the Pakistani inventory, Chinese military diplomacy with Pakistan was stepped up dramatically, and Chinese and Pakistan militaries engaged in a vast range of collaborative military exercises. This period also saw a sharp rise in Pakistani military interaction with the Russian military. In fact, the Pak-China-Russia military interaction picked up pace so dramatically that to outsiders, this appeared to be a quasi-military alliance. According to western commentators, this period saw an increase in the interoperability between the Chinese and Pakistani militaries and in fact, there were signs that the two militaries might be heading for joint military and strategic planning in the region. The past ten years have witnessed the Pakistan military gradually weaning itself off its dependence on western, and especially American, weapon systems. According to a Pakistani source, the only major American or western weapons system now in the Pakistan military’s inventory is the Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter jet, for which the Pakistan Air Force is still dependent on American supplies of spare parts and weapons. “We have completely shifted to Chinese weapon systems… no major weapon system of US origin acts as a frontline weapon system in our military,” said a Pakistani official.

In April 2022, the then Chief of the Army staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa expressed his frustration with Pakistan’s western military suppliers during a security conference in Islamabad.

General Bajwa explained to an international audience that Pakistan had to look for other sources when the West denied defense equipment to Pakistan. General Bajwa said that Pakistan was denied military equipment from the West, though deals had been finalized and fully paid for. Giving examples, the army chief said Pakistan had procured T-129 helicopters fitted with US-made engines from Turkey, but the US refused to allow third-party certification. Similarly, the chief said that Germany refused to provide Pakistan engines for submarines, and France too did the same under pressure from India, which is a big buyer of French weapons. “So, what do we do,” General Bajwa asked, telling the American journalist, “it’s your (the US’) responsibility to maintain the balance. If you are tilted to one side outright, we will have to find sources to get the right weapons to defend ourselves. So, you (the US) need to carry out some introspection whether your policy is right or not,” General Bajwa told the journalist categorically.

General Bajwa expressed this frustration in April 2022, and within six months, he was on a high-profile official visit to Washington spanning six days. Bajwa was making calculated moves even before he went to Washington. He was distancing himself from the then Prime Minister Imran Khan’s move to visit Moscow at the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, Bajwa was describing Washington as a long-standing strategic partner and even publicly announced placing a telephone call to a senior US State Department official to facilitate Pakistan’s quest for a loan from the IMF. Obviously, Bajwa was not acting on personal impulse. There was something cooking in the power corridors.

Fast forward to 2025: Within the short span of a few months, Pakistan’s powerful Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has made two visits to Washington. There are clear benefits that Pakistan gained from the visits at the diplomatic and military levels. The visits brought clear diplomatic disadvantages for India when the US State Department declared Baloch separatist militant groups — which have received material and propaganda support from Indian intelligence and media — as global terrorist networks. This is a clear blow to the Indian position, which portrayed these militant groups as freedom fighters. Now, Indian intelligence will be aiding groups which have been declared terrorists by the United States. This appears as a major jolt to India’s diplomatic position on international terrorism. Till this declaration by the US State Department, Indians used to boast their position to be aligned with the global war against terrorism as all the groups which were targeting India had been declared terrorists by the US. Now India is facing a very difficult position when it and its intelligence agencies would be perceived as supporters of an international terrorist organisation, dubbed a terrorist by its closest ally, the United States.

But Pakistan has no reason to be complacent. US–India military ties have deep institutional and geopolitical bases. The United States and the military assistance it provided to India during the past ten years were the major reasons behind India’s confidence and belligerence in its attitude, which led to the 7 May 2025 attack on Pakistani territory. We should remain aware of the fact that the conventional military balance between the Pakistani and Indian militaries is widening with each passing day to Pakistan’s disadvantage. The threat of Indians acting on the impulse — originating in the current trend of militarily powerful states browbeating relatively weaker states in the international system — of devastating weaker neighbours could not be ruled out. The US, Russia, Israel and France are supplying modern armament into the Indian inventory, India is flirting with dangerous military doctrines, and India’s attempts to tamper with the nuclear deterrence relationship are not good signs for South Asian peace. US military assistance to India during the last ten years has played no small part in widening the conventional military gap between Pakistan and India.

Pakistan’s political and military leaders have over the years insisted that they don’t want to become part of cold war style camp politics. In this way they don’t want to become exclusive partners of either of the super powers. They want to maintain close relations with both China and the United States. However, as parting of ways between India and the United States has shown, the regional and international politics related to the South Asian region would remain in flux for considerable time in future. We cannot be complacent.