Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact Exposes India’s Gulf Illusion

Islamabad: The photograph of four men standing together in Riyadh carried a clear message. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir stood with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman.

It signaled that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia had entered a defence pact that alters the balance of security in South Asia and the Middle East. The agreement goes further than past cooperation. It commits both states to respond jointly if either comes under attack.

For Riyadh, the pact offers insurance against uncertainty in the Middle East and waning confidence in US guarantees. For Islamabad, it restores relevance at a moment of economic strain and political discord.

Celebrations in both capitals reflected how each side views the deal. Saudi Arabia gains access to Pakistan’s large, experienced military and its status as the only Muslim nuclear power. Pakistan secures financial backing, political cover, and renewed stature as a security provider in the Muslim world.

The inclusion of Khalid bin Salman in the Riyadh photograph was deliberate. As defence minister and likely heir to MBS, his presence shows the pact is meant to endure across generations.

Not everyone has spoken. President Asif Ali Zardari and his heir Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari have stayed silent, avoiding both endorsement and criticism. Their restraint reflects political calculations inside Pakistan’s coalition government, where allowing Sharif to own a major success comes with risks for rivals.

In India, the reaction is uneasy. For years New Delhi invested in building influence in the Gulf, presenting itself as a preferred partner for trade, energy, and labor markets. This defence pact cuts across that effort. India now faces a Pakistan newly backed by Saudi Arabia and must rethink how to balance economic ties with Riyadh against the revival of Pakistan’s military role in the region.

The timing gives the deal additional weight. Israel’s strike on Doha shook Gulf capitals and highlighted the limits of American protection. For Saudi Arabia, aligning with Pakistan provides deterrence. For Pakistan, it opens the door back into Middle Eastern diplomacy, where Muslim solidarity has gained new urgency.

The nuclear dimension – unstated but implied – adds another layer. Adversaries now have to consider whether Saudi Arabia could draw on Pakistan’s umbrella in a crisis.

The pact also shapes Sharif’s political calendar. From Riyadh he flew to London, where he is consulting his brother Nawaz Sharif, party activists, and members of the diaspora. His opponents have planned protests, but he arrives with a visible diplomatic gain.

London is a stopover. He will continue to New York for the UN General Assembly, where he intends to present Pakistan as a player returning to global relevance. Only after that will he return home, carrying both foreign endorsements and domestic tests.

For Saudi Arabia, the pact formalizes what was once implicit. Doubts about US reliability, tensions with Iran, and the desire for a more independent security framework have pushed Riyadh to institutionalize ties with Islamabad. The involvement of Khalid bin Salman underlines that the arrangement is not tied to one leader but designed to last.

For India, the setback is strategic. Its outreach to Riyadh was meant to reduce Pakistan’s role in Gulf security. That calculation has now been disrupted. Indian analysts warn that Saudi funding or technology could indirectly strengthen Pakistan’s defence posture. At the least, New Delhi faces a harder task in keeping its influence exclusive.

Pakistan still faces risks. A deeper embrace of Riyadh could complicate its already tense relationship with Iran. Dependence on Saudi financing carries long-term economic risks. And the nuclear undertones of the pact may attract scrutiny from Washington and international watchdogs. But Islamabad appears ready to accept those costs in exchange for renewed standing.

The Riyadh photograph was not a casual snapshot. It was a signal that both states intend to act together in an unstable region.

For Pakistan, it marks a return to strategic relevance. For Saudi Arabia, it offers protection beyond American promises. For India, it forces a recalibration it had hoped to avoid.

The image of Sharif, Munir, MBS, and Khalid is now part of the record. It shows that alliances in the Gulf are shifting again, with consequences stretching from Arabia’s deserts to South Asia’s frontiers. And in Islamabad, the silence of Zardari and Bilawal suggests that even rivals understand the scale of this change – too significant to oppose, but also too consequential to casually endorse.