The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict is significantly reshaping the global medium-term gas outlook, with disruptions expected to affect energy markets for years to come.

According to IEA gas analyst Gergely Molnar, the conflict could result in the loss of around 120 billion cubic meters of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply between 2026 and 2030, amounting to nearly 15% of projected supply growth during the period.

The agency noted that attacks and instability in the region have already disrupted LNG operations, particularly in Qatar, where a portion of export capacity has reportedly been affected. The situation has raised concerns over gas supplies to Europe and Asia ahead of critical storage and winter preparation periods.

IEA officials warned that tighter gas market conditions could persist longer than previously expected, even though additional liquefaction capacity from other regions may partially offset losses from the Middle East.

The report also highlighted that European Union gas storage levels remain significantly below their five-year average, increasing concerns over energy security if disruptions continue. Analysts say prolonged instability in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas could further complicate global fuel supply chains.

Energy experts believe the crisis is accelerating shifts in global gas trade patterns, with countries increasingly seeking long-term supply agreements and alternative energy routes to reduce vulnerability to geopolitical shocks.

Analysts warn that sustained disruption in the Middle East could contribute to higher global energy prices, inflationary pressure, and broader economic uncertainty for import-dependent economies worldwide.