Trump Faces Growing Political Test Ahead of US Midterms

ISLAMABAD: President Donald Trump’s public approval rating rose from a record low, while Americans voiced growing support for Democrats gaining ‌power in the U.S. Congress in a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken in the days after the Republican Party’s first-ever midterm convention last week.

The four-day poll showed 63% of Americans – including four in 10 Republicans and nine in 10 Democrats – disapproved of Trump’s offer made in his convention speech that he would ensure all Americans get a $5,000 dividend if Republicans retain control of the U.S. Congress in November’s midterm elections.

Trump’s political future is increasingly tied to whether he can translate the Republican Party’s control of Washington into tangible economic gains before the November midterm elections. The Reuters/Ipsos findings suggest that his personal political standing remains vulnerable despite the recovery from his recent record low. For Trump, the midterms are therefore more than a referendum on congressional control: they are an early test of whether his second-term political project retains enough public support to shape the remainder of his presidency.

A major danger for Trump is the traditional midterm pattern in which the president’s party loses congressional seats. Republicans face the additional problem of an electorate increasingly focused on the cost of living, tariffs, economic uncertainty and the consequences of US involvement in overseas conflicts. Trump has sought to counter these pressures through highly visible economic promises, including his proposed $5,000 dividend. But the reported rejection of the proposal even among a substantial share of Republicans suggests that populist economic messaging may not automatically translate into political support.

The outcome could also determine Trump’s ability to govern during the second half of his presidency. If Republicans retain control of Congress, Trump would have considerably greater freedom to pursue his domestic and foreign-policy agenda and could portray the result as a public endorsement of his administration. A Republican defeat, particularly if Democrats capture the House or Senate, would give opponents greater leverage over legislation, spending and investigations and could transform the final years of Trump’s presidency into a period of sustained political confrontation.

Trump nevertheless remains the dominant figure in the Republican Party. His political strength does not depend entirely on approval ratings: he continues to exercise considerable influence over Republican voters and candidates. The more important question for his longer-term future is whether he can maintain that influence while dealing with voter dissatisfaction over economic conditions and foreign-policy decisions. A weak midterm performance could encourage Republican politicians to begin positioning themselves for the post-Trump era, even if few are likely to openly challenge him while he remains politically powerful.

The midterms could consequently become the first major indicator of what follows Trump’s second presidency. A strong Republican performance would reinforce his claim that his political movement remains capable of mobilizing voters and could allow him to shape the Republican succession after 2028. A major Democratic victory, by contrast, would strengthen arguments that Trump’s coalition is reaching its limits and could accelerate the search within the Republican Party for a new generation of leadership. For now, the Reuters/Ipsos numbers point to a difficult political environment in which Trump remains the Republican Party’s central figure but faces a growing question over whether his personal popularity is strong enough to carry the party through the midterms.